Indian private telecom operators including Reliance Jio, Bharti Airtel, and Vodafone Idea are likely to raise prepaid and postpaid tariffs by 20% in 2026. The previous tariff hikes suggest the telcos have a two year period for raising tariffs. Since the last hike came in July 2024, going by the trend, the next one could spring up in 2026. As per Morgan Stanley, the telcos could hike the tariffs again by as much as 20% the next year. The telcos have been raising tariffs indirectly by pushing OTT benefits with better or higher priced plans, and also now bundling 5G with 2GB daily data plans only.
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In the next hike, the access to 5G network could become even more expensive. Analysts at Morgan Stanley said, "We are now assuming ~16-20% tariff increases across 4G/5G plans, both prepaid and postpaid, in 2026, which should drive strong ARPU increases for companies in F27."
This would benefit the sector majorly. Bharti Airtel, standing at an ARPU (average revenue per user) of Rs 256 at the end of Q2 FY26, could easily touch the ARPU of Rs 300 with another round of tariff hike. A 20% hike on the current tariffs would boost the top line revenues of the telcos, impacting their bottom line positively as well.
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While Airtel and Jio aren't losing customers, Vodafone Idea is. The next hike, as always, could result in SIM consolidation and a reduction in the subscriber base for the telcos in the short-term. However, it always reverses in two to three quarters.
Morgan Stanley estimates that Airtel's tariff hike would not only cross Rs 300, but also Rs 400 without any further tariff hike than the one in 2026.
Here's what the analysts at the firm said, "We think Bharti Airtel has the potential to deliver an ARPU of ?400 over the next five years even without any further tariff hike beyond 2026. We believe any further tariff hikes could drive upside risks to ARPUs."
