Vodafone Idea Limited (VIL), the third-largest telecom operator in the country, is likely facing a bigger threat from BSNL (Bharat Sanchar Nigam Limited) than Airtel and Jio in the short-term. The ailing the telecom operator is losing subscribers every month and quarter that goes by. But that's not been the case with BSNL.
The 2G User Conundrum
One of Vi’s biggest challenges lies in its 2G-heavy customer base. Among private operators, Vi still has the largest proportion of 2G subscribers. These users are price-sensitive, seeking the most affordable services. However, with telcos—including Vi—continuing to raise tariffs, the risk of churn increases.
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Unlike high-paying 4G and 5G users who tend to migrate to Jio or Airtel for better network experiences, 2G customers have a different fallback option—BSNL. The state-run operator offers the lowest tariffs, and with its long-delayed 4G rollout finally underway, BSNL has become an automatic choice for cost-conscious users.
Why BSNL is a Bigger Threat Than Before
For years, BSNL was written off due to poor network quality and delayed modernisation. But in FY25, the company reported two consecutive quarters of net profits and managed to add new subscribers. In fact, its performance in terms of growth has outpaced Vi’s, marking a surprising turnaround.
While BSNL still lags behind Airtel and Jio in after-sales service and customer experience, it is closing the gap, which could make it an even bigger threat to Vi’s fragile base.
The Tariff Reality
For Vi, growth is nearly impossible without tariff hikes. The company, like Airtel and Jio, must rely on higher average revenue per user (ARPU) to improve its financials. But unlike its rivals, Vi doesn’t have the same financial muscle to keep investing in network expansion while waiting for ARPU gains.
This creates a dangerous cycle: Without better networks, Vi struggles to attract and retain users. Without fresh funding, it cannot invest adequately in network upgrades. Without user growth, its financials worsen further.
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The Financing Dead-End
Vi’s financial troubles go beyond declining subscribers. The telco faces upcoming payments on adjusted gross revenue (AGR) dues, a burden that continues to weigh it down. Adding to the strain, the government has made it clear that no further relief package will be extended to Vi.
This puts banks and financial institutions in a tough position. With no government backing and no assurance of long-term viability, lenders are unlikely to inject fresh capital into the company. Unless Vi finds a way to secure external funding, its network revival strategy may stall, deepening its troubles.
The Bigger Picture: Networks and Service Experience
In today’s telecom market, network quality remains the top differentiator. Both Jio and Airtel have invested heavily in 4G and 5G rollouts while simultaneously improving customer service. Vi has made efforts in the same direction, but its slower pace limits competitiveness.
BSNL, while still behind on service experience, has a strong appeal on price. If it manages to scale its 4G rollout effectively, Vi could face a dual assault—premium users shifting to Jio and Airtel, and low-income users migrating to BSNL.
