Brokerage firms expect Bharti Airtel and Reliance Jio to report an increase in their cellular revenues for Q4FY25, while Vodafone Idea (Vi) is likely to see a continued decline due to ongoing subscriber churn. Vi's subscriber loss trend may continue, with its user base falling by 4.2 million in the March 2025 quarter.
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Airtel's Q4FY25 Performance
"We see Bharti's India revenue rising 8.7 percent QoQ/38 percent YoY to Rs 398 billion (Rs 39,800 crore) and its mobile segment may dip 0.1 percent QoQ/+19 percent YoY in Q4FY25E. India EBITDA should grow 0.1 percent QoQ/57.5 percent YoY to Rs 240 billion (Rs 24,000 crore)," ICICI Securities said in a research note, according to an ETTelecom report.
The brokerage reportedly noted that Airtel's enterprise business revenue may dip by 5 percent sequentially due to the discontinuation of commodity business, but this may have a negligible impact on its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA).
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Nomura, in a separate estimate, projected a 1 percent QoQ increase in Airtel’s India wireless revenue to Rs 26,500 crore, driven by strong subscriber additions of 3.5 million and a slight rise in ARPU to Rs 247 per month, up from Rs 245 in the December 2024 quarter.
"The uptick in ARPU will be modest in 4Q on account of lower number of days. We estimate wireless EBITDA also increased 1 percent quarter-on-quarter to Rs 157 billion (Rs 15,700 crore), with margins increasing 20bp quarter-on-quarter to 59 percent from 58.8 percent in 3QFY25," Nomura said, as per the report.
BoFA Securities reportedly added that Airtel's underlying business drivers remain strong. "We expect 4Q revenues to be impacted by Bharti exiting low margin commodity wholesale voice business, partly offset by the full 3 months consolidation of Indus Towers revenues, leading to a 13.7 percent quarter-on-quarter rise in revenues."
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Reliance Jio Maintains Momentum
"We expect India telcos to report a largely stable set of numbers and estimate Bharti Airtel, Jio and Vodafone Idea Limited to show 2.5 percent, 2.3 percent, -2.1 percent quarter-on-quarter change in India cellular revenues," BoFA reportedly added.
According to a repory by Morgan Stanley, Jio is expected to deliver a revenue of Rs 29,940 crore), growing by 2.2 percent quarter-on-quarter and 15.3 percent year-on-year, and EBITDA of Rs 18,850 crore, while the telco's subscribers may grow by 5 million sequentially to 487 million in Q4FY25. It may report an ARPU of Rs 206 for the quarter.
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Vodafone Idea Faces Continued Pressure
According to JM Financial, Vi is expected to continue losing subscribers, with a decline of 4.2 million in the March 2025 quarter, mainly due to churn in the lower ARPU segment. However, its mobile broadband (MBB) user base is projected to grow by 2 million during the same period.
"Further, its ARPU is expected to be flat quarter-on-quarter at Rs 163, as the benefit of improved subs mix is likely to be offset by 2 lesser days quarter-on-quarter in 4QFY25 (while July 2024 tariff hike has completely passed through its APRU by end-3QFY25)," JM Financial noted, as per the report.
As a result, Vi's revenue is expected to decline by 2.1 percent quarter-on-quarter to Rs 10,900 crore in Q4FY25. Reported EBITDA is projected to fall by 1.2 percent to Rs 4,650 crore, while cash EBITDA is likely to decrease by 2.4 percent to Rs 2,390 crore during the same period.
Centrum Broking estimates that in Q4FY25, Jio may add 4 million subscribers, taking its total user base to 486 million. Airtel is expected to add 3 million subscribers, reaching 360 million, while Vi's subscriber base may shrink by 3 million, bringing it down to 197 million.
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Airtel Rural Deployment Nears Completion
JM Financial also observed that Indus Towers is expected to report around 7,600 net tenancy additions in Q4FY25, supported by Vodafone Idea’s continued network expansion and Airtel's rural roll-out. However, tower additions may ease to 3,800 during the quarter, down from approximately 5,000 in Q3FY25, as Airtel's rural deployment nears completion.
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Indus Towers Sees Mixed Growth
The brokerage expects Indus Towers' rentals to remain flat quarter-on-quarter, which could support a 2 percent rise in revenue to Rs 7,690 crore in Q4FY25. However, reported EBITDA is projected to decline by 33 percent quarter-on-quarter to Rs 4,720 crore, factoring in an estimated recovery of Rs 500 crore in past dues from Vodafone Idea, compared to Rs 3,020 crore recovered in Q3FY25.
