What if Jio, Vi, and Airtel Skip 5G and Focus on 4G

Jio, Vi, and Airtel are the only three PAN-India 4G operators in India right now. All the telcos have hundreds of millions of users in their subscriber base to whom they provide 4G network services. There are 2G users as well, but that’s a conversation for another day. Today, what I want to talk about is what if Jio, Vi, and Airtel don’t roll out 5G and just focus on 4G? Note that I very well know this isn’t going to happen. However, I couldn’t help but wonder, what if the telcos just went on with their usual 4G network services and didn’t care about 5G because of the steep spectrum price and the decision of the government to allow the enterprises to get airwaves directly in an administrative manner for captive private networks?

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To be very honest, 5G doesn’t seem like the biggest deal-breaker for the telcos right now. From an investor perspective, the kind of expenditure that 5G would entail in 2022, factoring in spectrum price, among other things, doesn’t feel like a very solid option for Jio, Vi, or Airtel. Not to forget, Vi doesn’t even have the capacity to make large investments for 5G in the first place. Expenditure is not the issue; RoI (return on investment) is!

But one thing’s proven for the telecom operators – revenues from 4G networks. They have already spent billions of dollars on setting up infrastructure, permissions, spectrum, and more for 4G, and it is also bringing them plenty of money. While 5G will open up a whole new revenue stream from the enterprise sector, are the telcos really desperate for it? Well, I would argue not, despite fully acknowledging the fact that all the private companies just want to make more money. So, what will happen if the telcos really don’t go for 5G? Let’s take a look at the negatives first.