Dell’Oro Group has revised its growth expectations for the Mobile Core Network (MCN) market. Instead of the 3% CAGR (Compounded Annual Growth Rate), the revised expectations are 2% CAGR for the MCN market in the next five years. Just six months back, the forecast was more in the positive side than now. This has a lot to do with things that are going on in the global market right now. There’s a high inflation scare, geopolitical tensions, supply chain issues and more. All of this will contribute to increasing the challenges for the MNOs (Mobile Network Operators).
“The July 2022 forecast is more conservative than the January 2022 forecast due to industry headwinds, including supply chain challenges, higher inflation, an impending recession, Mobile Network Operators’ (MNO) challenges to increase revenues, and regional political conflicts,” said Dave Bolan, Research Director at Dell’Oro Group.
“As a result, we reduced 2022 to 2026 cumulative revenue forecast by 6%, decreasing revenues by $3.2 billion. The July 2022 cumulative revenue forecast (2022-2026) is now $50.3 billion resulting in a 2% CAGR.”
However, it is worth noting that things could change pretty fast in favour of the MCN market. It would depend on the number of 5G SA networks that are being deployed, the revenues that the telcos can generate, and other things such as reduced tension between several countries, fixation of the supply chain, and more.
“We are tracking the number of 5G Standalone (5G SA) MBB networks that have been launched commercially by MNOs. In the first half of 2022, only three new 5G SA networks were launched, KDDI in Japan, DISH Wireless in the US, and China Broadnet in China, bringing the total deployed around the world to 27 MNO 5G SA MBB networks,” Bolan added.
The growth of 5G SA is relatively going to be slow over the next two to three years before finally picking up pace.