Airtel AGR Market Share Grows, Despite Strong Subscriber Addition of Jio: ICICI Securities

ICICI Securities in its report highlighted that Bharti Airtel witnessed an 83 bps QoQ gain in AGR Market share to 36.3 per cent, adding incremental AGR QoQ, Rs 7.6 billion compared to Rs 6.6 billion of Reliance Jio. However, despite the strong subscriber addition of Jio, its revenue growth translation was slower during the quarter.

Highlights

  • Airtel has grown faster in metros and category A circles, too, compared to Reliance Jio, probably on higher postpaid subscriber addition and better monetisation of data usage.
  • Vodafone Idea's AGR market share fell 20 bps to 17.5% on underperformance in leadership circles, while it has done relatively well in established circles.
  • Reliance Jio's AGR growth has been relatively higher in metros at 3.3% QoQ and Category A circles at 4.4% QoQ.

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Airtel AGR Market Share Grows, Despite Strong Subscriber Addition of Jio: ICICI Securities

Industry Adjusted Gross Revenue (AGR), including NLD in Q2FY23, grew 1.6% Quarter on Quarter, 16.4% Year over year, to Rs 543 billion. Bharti Airtel witnessed an 83 bps QoQ gain in AGR Market share to 36.3 per cent, adding incremental AGR QoQ, Rs 7.6 billion compared to Rs 6.6 billion of Reliance Jio. However, despite the strong subscriber addition of Jio, its revenue growth translation was slower during the quarter.

During its Q2FY23 Results, Airtel highlighted its premium postpaid subscriber base and the customers they want to target. Airtel Black is one example of the premiumisation of the postpaid segment and provisioning of DTH, Mobile and Broadband as a bundled package.

Airtel has grown faster in metros and category A circles, too, compared to Reliance Jio, probably on higher postpaid subscriber addition and better monetisation of data usage. On the other hand, VIL's AGR market share fell 20 bps to 17.5% on underperformance in leadership circles, while it has done relatively well in established circles.

Bharti's market share on a GR basis is the same as Reliance Jio's at 38.1%. Jio's GR market share has been stable at 38% for the past five quarters.

Here's what the ICICI Securities Report Highlights:

Industry AGR (incl. NLD) rose 1.6% QoQ / 16.4% YoY to Rs543bn.

The top three operator's combined AGR (incl. NLD) rose 2.9% QoQ / 17.2% YoY. However, the benefit of premiumisation has been limited while subscriber growth has returned post-SIM consolidation. Q2FY23 annualised revenue stood at Rs 2,170 bn, and AGR (incl. NLD) was Rs 1,902 bn for FY22. Industry gross revenue was up 3.1% QoQ (21.1% YoY) to Rs 616 bn.

Bharti Airtel's AGR (incl. NLD) increased 4.0% QoQ / 17.7% YoY to Rs 197 bn.

Bharti Airtel's AGR (incl. NLD) market share rose to 36.3%, up 83bps QoQ / 41bps YoY. Its incremental AGR QoQ was Rs 7.6 billion vs Rs 6.6 billion for Jio. This was despite significant subscriber addition by Reliance Jio. ICICI Securities said Bharti Airtel benefited from better data monetisation. The circle-wise analysis shows Bharti has grown significantly faster in metros (10% QoQ) and category A circles (+5.7%), while Category B and C circles have grown slower at 2.6% and 2% QoQ respectively.

Also ReadAirtel Mobile Business Shows an Organic Growth

Underperforming Circles:

Uttar Pradesh east (down 3.6% QoQ), Bihar (down 1.1%), Uttar Pradesh west (+2.7), and Madhya Prade (2%) are the circles that have underperformed. Bharti's GR-based market share of 38% is equal to Reliance Jio's, while there is a gap of 510 bps between their AGR market shares (in favour of Reliance Jio).

Also Check: You can check the past one year wireless subscriber statistics by clicking here.

Vodafone Idea's AGR (incl. NLD) market share fell to 17.5% (down 20bps QoQ)

VIL's AGR (incl. NLD) rose 0.5% QoQ / 9.7% YoY to Rs 95 bn. Growth in leadership circles was slower at 0.9% QoQ due to a dip in QoQ revenue in UP east (down 11.2%), MP (down 3.6%) and Maharashtra (down 0.6%). On the other hand, growth in established circles was relatively faster at 3.2% QoQ while others increased by 2.9%.

Reliance Jio's AGR (incl. NLD) rose 3.0% QoQ / 20.1% YoY to Rs 225 bn.

Reliance Jio's AGR (incl. NLD) market share was 41.4%, up 56 bps QoQ. AGR growth has been relatively higher in metros at 3.3% QoQ and Category A circles at 4.4% QoQ; however, they have grown significantly slower than Bharti in the same circles. On the other hand, Category B and Category C circles' AGR rose at 2.3% / 2.6%, respectively.

Also Read: An Overview of Wireless Subscriber Additions and MNP Requests: TRAI Sep Data

Jio lost Market Share in 8 Circles:

In circle-wise analysis, Reliance Jio lost market share in eight circles and under-performed in a few circles, such as Delhi (+2.1% QoQ), Tamil Nadu (+1.9), Rajasthan (+1.7%) and Madhya Pradesh (+1.4%). Also, Reliance Jio has shown a significant pick-up in AGR in Karnataka Circle, a circle critical for Airtel, up 10.4% QoQ / 36.9% YoY. As a result, Reliance Jio's market share based on GR has been close to 38% for the past five quarters, while Bharti has gained under the same parameter.

Vodafone Idea gained 225,732 wireless subscribers in Karnataka circle, according to TRAI Data.

Also Read: Vodafone Idea Lost Subscribers in All of its Circles Except Delhi and Karnataka: TRAI Data

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Passionately following the Indian #Telecom Industry for over a decade from Business, Consumer and a Technical perspective. My primary focus area is Consumer & Digital Experience.

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