Airtel and Reliance Jio to Surpass Vodafone Idea In terms of Revenue Share in 2019: Analysts

Going by the words of analysts and experts, the second-ranked Sunil Mittal Bharti led telecom operator Airtel and Reliance Jio Infocomm, the latest entrant in the industry might race ahead of the top telecom operator of India, Vodafone Idea, by the end of 2019. As per an ET Telecom report, Bharti Airtel will surpass Vodafone Idea in 2019 in terms of revenue market share on the basis of a robust 4G network. The experts have also chipped in saying that the current market leader’s focus will be on integrating the two companies. They have further added that with the companies pursuing a goal of higher average revenue per user (ARPU), the industry marker might witness a rise too. More data consumption attributing to an election year is also a considerable prospect.

airtel-jio-vodafone-idea-revenue-share-2019

Experts Predict a More Stable Industry in 2019

The analyst maintained their position and said that the industry would also witness stability in 2019 as Reliance Jio has already amassed 275 million subscribers and nearly 27% RMS signalling a slowing in its intensity of customer acquisition. The Cellular Operators Association of India (COAI), however, is of a different opinion and believes that the competition and pressure of declining ARPU will trouble the sector in 2019 also.

Nitin Soni, director (corporates) at Fitch Ratings said about this, “Airtel and Jio could end up holding roughly 33% RMS each by end-2019, while Vodafone Idea’s could drop below 30% by end-2019 from its near 33% level now, as the latter is likely to face network integration challenges and not be in a position to offer 4G services comparable with either Jio or Airtel.”

The Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (Trai) also collected data concerning this issue which highlighted that Airtel’s RMS stood at 30.9% (343.5 million users), which is a decline of 0.75% points from the previous quarter. Reliance Jio’s RMS, on the other hand, was up to 26.1% (over 252 million users). Vodafone Idea boasted an RMS of 32.8% (437.5 million subscribers. scribers), witnessing a decline of 190 bps.

Vodafone Idea’s Capex Spend to Present Major Hurdle for the Telco

Soni further said that VIL might have a tough time in the coming year as it probably won’t be able to match the level of capex spends which Airtel and Reliance Jio will carry over in 2019. To balance this out, Vodafone Idea is already plotting some strategies. The company plans to raise Rs 25,000 crore via equity infusion and selling of its fibre assets. However, the experts believe that this might not be enough.

To recall, the intense data tariff war snowballed after the introduction of very competitively priced plans by Reliance Jio, back in September 2016. The data tariff war eroded revenue from the industry and forced a lot of players to take an exit. This war was also the reason for the merger of Vodafone and Idea. However, experts have asserted that with the industry now resting in the hands of three major players, there is going to be stability in the pricing in 2019. Sanjiv Bhasin, executive vice president (markets & corporate affairs), IIFL, said he expects “pricing power to return in 2019” as he sees “Jio focusing more on revenue.”

Also, 2019 being an election year is yet another critical factor which will contribute to revenue for the telcos. According to the analysts, the data traffic will rise 20% year-on-year in 2019, and a lot of feature phone users are expected to migrate to smartphones thus increasing revenues. Fitch Ratings’ Soni also expects a 5-10% year-on-year industry ARPU growth in the next 12 months from the current Rs 100-105 level attributing to the new minimum recharges rolled out by telcos.

Arpit spends his day closely following the telecom and tech industry. A music connoisseur and a night owl, he also takes a deep interest in the Indian technology start-up scene and spends rest of his time spilling poetry and stories on paper.

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Kaushik IMAPriyanshNikhil Mumbai-PuneSUJIT KUMAR HOTAChetan | bengaluru Recent comment authors
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Goswami
Goswami

Nothing surprising! Jio will screw Avoid cartel further in coming months! Let Avoid cartel be happy with their slightly higher ARPU but lower RMS, while Jio will make merry with higher RMS!

Vodafone-Idea are fools to just blindly follow and copy+paste Airtel plans & tariffs, without applying their mind!

Nikhil Mumbai-Pune
Nikhil Mumbai-Pune

I guess those are using Jio right now are the fools right now.

Chetan | bengaluru
Chetan | bengaluru

@nikhil, could be yes jio users may be fools… But I tell you one thing clearly, right now you are the biggest fool roaming around on this forum and certainly we don’t want to see your comments any more. Some people are polite and sober hence they do not object you but doesn’t mean they love you comments…. I am the least polite of all hence showing you your place here….

Nikhil Mumbai-Pune
Nikhil Mumbai-Pune

Ok mate no issues. Won’t comment again.

Priyansh
Priyansh

After your spat with Kaushik, you don’t even need to mention that you’re least polite or to be precisely speaking a short tempered person. All the regular ones here know about you.

Chetan | bengaluru
Chetan | bengaluru

@priyansh, as long as my temper do not hamper the truth, I am ok. Enjoy your day..

Nikhil Mumbai-Pune
Nikhil Mumbai-Pune

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

Kaushik IMA
Kaushik IMA

Chetanbhai,

Soft threats are not going to do you any good. Bury your ego deep down, they won’t do you good.

Priyansh
Priyansh

Kaushik Bhai, Bhains k aage Been bajane se koi faayda nahi. You cannot change someone’s nature by merely requesting them.

Priyansh
Priyansh

Nikhil, bro you need a break from TT. Or refrain yourself from posting in Comments Section. Words are Slipping which isn’t Nice.

Nikhil Mumbai-Pune
Nikhil Mumbai-Pune

Chetan is consistently trying to say Jio is very network of all service providers which isn’t the case. You are also having worst experience with Jio. If I am getting good experience on Airtel,why should I stay on Jio? As per Chetan,here in Mumbai,Vodafone services for deteriorating like hell but that’s not the case. Intact it’s only network improving after Airtel in this area. Its not as good as Airtel but far better than Jio to be honest. Jio has deteriorating a lot in 2018 and I think it will continue to be so in 2019. Only thing Airtel needs… Read more »

Priyansh
Priyansh

Nik, you use want you like to use because you pay upfront for it and no one else can question you on that. So keep using what you deem fit. As for him, there is a soft corner of everyone for their revered operator, can’t be questioned. I’ve seen people from Karnataka Circle (AirTel’s Leadership Circle) complaining about Airtel’s shoddy service. And he generally pulls down VIL. So if Jio is great at his place he will definitely be all praises for them. But why does it bothers you? Bhau, aur bhi bahut ghum hai zamaane mein, aise jhagadne baith… Read more »

Nikhil Mumbai-Pune
Nikhil Mumbai-Pune

I use it for back up purpose. I heavily relies on Vodafone for calling. Earlier it was Idea. Now using Airtel data. I use which is best my area.

Vishal | Chennai
Vishal | Chennai

Off topic . Mediatek P90 chipset support 3CA 256-QAM and a better processor architecture. Can TT post article about that? @chakri

Chakri Kudikala

Sure will do it.

Kiran Fernandes | Goa
Kiran Fernandes | Goa

Yeah, but i’m disappointed that they didn’t go for a higher 4G modem. It should have had 4CA(800Mbps) support at least. 😐

Nikhil Mumbai-Pune
Nikhil Mumbai-Pune

Let 4G settle first to make 4CA possible. It’s possible through Airtel itself. We will see what happens. I hope Realme next device is powered by this along with 4000 capacity battery with teardrop notch.

Nikhil Mumbai-Pune
Nikhil Mumbai-Pune

CA stuff will be taken care of in 2020 June.

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