Let's take a look at what Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Economic Counsellor and Director of Research at the IMF (International Monetary Fund), said about Artificial Intelligence (AI). As an international organisation that primarily focuses on global financial stability and economic cooperation, any comments from its core team can have a significant impact on market sentiment.
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This article highlights the quotes and insights of Professor Gourinchas, who served as editor-in-chief of the IMF Economic Review from its inception in 2009 until 2016. It captures his evolving perspectives on AI's impact on the global economy, countries, financial assistance, and capacity development and technical assistance.
What They Said: Timeline
October 2025:
The US artificial intelligence investment boom may be followed by a dot-com-style bust, but it is less likely to be a systemic event that would crater the US or global economy, the International Monetary Fund's chief economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, said on Tuesday.
There are many similarities between the late 1990s internet stock bubble and the current AI boom, with both eras pushing stock valuations and capital gains wealth to new heights, fueling consumption that added to inflation pressures, Gourinchas told Reuters in an interview reported by David Lawder.
Then, as now, the promise of a new, transformative technology ultimately may not meet market expectations in the near-term and trigger a crash in stock valuations, he reportedly said. However, just as in 1999, investment in the sector is not built on leverage but rather by cash-rich tech companies.
"This is not financed by debt, and that means that if there is a market correction, some shareholders, some equity holders, may lose out," Gourinchas said at the start of the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Washington, according to a report dated October 14, 2025.
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Tech Companies Driving the AI Surge
Tech companies are investing hundreds of billions of dollars in AI chips, computing power, data centers, and other infrastructure, racing to deploy a technology that promises significant productivity gains.
Gourinchas noted that these gains have not yet been realised in the economy, just as the lofty valuations of internet stocks in the late 1990s were often not based on actual revenues, leading to the dot-com bust in 2000 and a shallow US recession in 2001.
While the direct impact on financial stability may be limited, Gourinchas said there was a possibility that an AI correction could trigger a shift in sentiment and risk tolerance, potentially leading to a broader repricing of assets that could put stress on non-bank financial institutions.
"But it's not a direct link. We're not seeing enormous links from the debt channel," Gourinchas reportedly added.
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IMF Outlook
The IMF's World Economic Outlook, released on Tuesday, cited the AI investment boom as one of the factors supporting US and global growth this year, along with US tariff rates coming in lower than feared and easier financial conditions, partly prompted by dollar depreciation.
However, Gourinchas noted that the added investment and consumption are helping to elevate demand and inflation pressures without associated productivity gains, even as non-tech investment falls, due in part to uncertainty over President Donald Trump's tariffs.
This is a developing story, and more quotes and insights from Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas will be added as they become available.
