The Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) released the Telecom Subscription Data as of August 31, 2024, on Friday. This marks the second consecutive release of subscriber data following the tariff revision announced in July, effective July 3, 2024. According to the TRAI data for July and August 2024, the results are clear: except for BSNL, every telecom operator, including private players and the largest telco known for adding wireless subscribers, has experienced a decline in wireless subscribers. This trend has been attributed to the tariff revisions, leading users to gravitate toward BSNL, which has not implemented any tariff hikes.
Also Read: BSNL Not Considering Tariff Hike Anytime Soon, CMD Says: Report
BSNL's Position in the Market
In fact, BSNL has been aggressively marketing its No Tariff Hike Plans on social media and promoting its 4G Network announcements. According to a recent report, the BSNL CMD mentioned at the launch of the new branding that the company is not seeking any tariff increases and is focused on customer satisfaction. Overall, BSNL's subscriber growth is being attributed to its No Tariff Hike policy and the positive sentiment surrounding its PAN India 4G Network launch. This sentiment has been echoed across the industry.
Timeline of Tariff Announcements
With that in mind, let's examine how this situation has unfolded, including the timeline, subscriber numbers, and key points that will help us understand something.
June 27: Surprisingly, Reliance Jio was the first to announce a tariff revision in 2024. While no specific reasons were provided, the new rates were set to take effect on July 3. Subscribers would also enjoy unlimited 5G on prepaid plans of 2GB per day and above.
June 28: Airtel followed suit with its tariff revision, emphasising that the mobile Average Revenue per User (ARPU) needs to exceed Rs 300 to ensure a financially healthy business model for telecom companies in India. As of Q4 FY24, Bharti Airtel holds the highest mobile ARPU in the country at Rs 209.
With these tariff increases, Airtel believes that achieving this ARPU level will facilitate substantial investments in network technology and spectrum while also providing a modest return on capital. Subscribers would also enjoy unlimited 5G on prepaid plans of 2GB per day and above.
June 28: Post-market hours on Friday, Vodafone Idea (Vi) quietly uploaded a press release confirming its tariff revision to the exchange.
July 3: The revised tariff hikes for all three private telcos—Bharti Airtel, Vodafone Idea, and Reliance Jio—came into effect.
While India witnessed these tariff revisions with private operators, BSNL did not announce any hikes. Frankly, BSNL has nothing to compete with in terms of revising tariffs, lacking a PAN India 4G, VoLTE, or 5G network. Thus, it does not make sense for BSNL to follow the private operators and raise its tariffs.
So far, BSNL has been actively announcing Mobile Number Portability (MNP) and new subscriber additions through its social media channels. It seems that users are porting to BSNL in large numbers due to its competitive tariffs and the anticipation of upcoming 4G services.
Read More - Bharti Airtel Announces Revised Mobile Tariffs: Check Complete Details
September 20: TRAI released Telecom Subscription Data as of July 31, 2024. According to this data, BSNL was the only telco to add 2.93 million (2,931,971) wireless subscribers, while Airtel lost 1.69 million (-1,694,300), Vodafone Idea lost 1.41 million (-1,413,910), and Jio lost around 0.76 million (-758,463) wireless subscribers. This marked the first instance of wireless data from the regulator following the tariff revisions, revealing a combined subscriber loss of approximately 3.86 million for Airtel, Vodafone Idea, and Jio.
October 25: On Friday, TRAI released the Telecom Subscription Data as of August 31, 2024. The data again showed that BSNL was the only telco to gain subscribers, adding 2.53 million (2,532,854) wireless subscribers. In contrast, Airtel lost 2.41 million (-2,409,102), Vodafone Idea lost 1.87 million (-1,874,376), and Jio lost 4.02 million (-4,018,879) wireless subscribers. This marked the second consecutive month of declining wireless subscribers for all private telcos following the tariff revisions, with a total combined loss of around 8.3 million subscribers.
June 2024 Subscriber Metrics
To understand the subscriber metrics from the previous month, just before the tariff revision, we can look at the TRAI Data as of June 30, 2024. In June 2024, BSNL and Vodafone Idea were the only telcos that lost wireless subscribers. We can set aside Vi, as it has been on a continuous subscriber loss streak. Airtel gained 1.25 million wireless subscribers, Vodafone Idea lost 0.86 million wireless subscribers, BSNL lost 0.75 million, and Jio gained 1.91 million wireless subscribers. This pattern has persisted for some time.
Fast forward to the current scenario, and everything has changed: BSNL is the only telco gaining subscribers, credited to the tariff revisions.
Time Duration
Examining the timeline, the revised tariffs from private telcos were announced at the end of June (on the 27th), with an effective date of July 3. TRAI's subscriber data for July is as of the 31st of that month, allowing for a 28-day buffer period.
Mobile Number Portability (MNP)
Let's also review the MNP request data reported by TRAI. In May 2024, 12 million subscribers submitted requests for MNP. This number slightly decreased to 11.84 million in June, while July saw an increase to 13.68 million and August saw 14.66 million MNP requests.
TRAI's report only mentions the MNP requests without further clarity. It does not specify whether these are just SMS requests received, how many were processed, and how many were denied or failed. Thus, we assume this data is insufficient to confirm if these are actually processed requests or merely requests received from customers. Even if we consider all of these requests as processed, they do not correspond closely to the subscriber additions. However, the MNP request numbers do show a modest increase in July and August compared to May and June.
Number Active Status
Telecom companies generally follow a specific timeline to discard unused or non-recharged numbers, especially after the mandatory service validity required even to receive incoming calls. In some cases, even that policy is not adhered to, and numbers remain active for incoming calls without any active recharges. Based on personal experience, a number in a non-recharge state can remain active for extended periods without being deactivated within just one month.
Assumptions
Considering the 28 days left in July following the tariff revision's effective date, it is difficult to assume that 3.86 million numbers were reduced immediately in July, followed by 8.3 million wireless subscribers in August from private telcos. Even if millions of customers stopped recharging after the tariff revision news, the likelihood of their numbers being discarded immediately is nearly zero.
The reported wireless subscriber numbers suggest that users have not recharged their accounts for a long time and are waiting for the tariff revisions to be discarded from the system. Even if we assume that some of these cases are accurate, previous months' additions tell a different story. Moreover, even considering the possibility of MNP, the numbers do not align. Therefore, we are left with speculative assumptions about the accuracy of the reported numbers.
