The first 6G deployments are expected in 2030, building on and scaling the capabilities of 5G SA and 5G Advanced. 5G Standalone (5G SA) and 5G Advanced are expected to be key focuses for communications service providers (CSPs) for the remainder of the decade as they deploy new capabilities to create offerings centered on value delivery rather than data volume, according to the November 2024 edition of the Ericsson Mobility Report.
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5G Standalone and 5G Advanced Lead the Way
The Swedish telecommunication company noted that while only 20 percent of the approximately 320 CSPs offering commercial 5G services today are 5G SA, it is expected that 60 percent of the 6.3 billion global 5G subscriptions forecast for 2030 will be 5G SA.
The Ericsson report also highlights that the densification of mid-band and 5G SA sites is seen as a key catalyst to capitalise on the full potential of 5G, including programmable and intelligent network capabilities. Currently, 5G mid-band is deployed at only about 30 percent of sites globally.
Mobile Data Traffic to Triple
Total mobile data traffic, including Fixed Wireless Access (FWA), is expected to grow nearly threefold by 2030. In particular, the widespread adoption of generative AI (GenAI), especially in video consumption and uplink traffic requirements, will contribute to this growth. India, for example, already has the highest average smartphone usage at 32GB per month, which is expected to increase to 66GB by 2030, according to the report.
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AI's Role in Traffic Growth
Generative AI, integrated into smartphones and other devices, is forecast to significantly impact both uplink and downlink network traffic, driving mobile traffic growth beyond the baseline predictions. By the end of 2030, 5G networks are expected to carry 80 percent of global mobile data traffic, up from 34 percent in 2024.
Umang Jindal, Head of Network Solutions, Software and Performance, Southeast Asia, Oceania and India, Ericsson says: "Generative AI (GenAI) may significantly impact future mobile network traffic, particularly through increased video consumption and changing uplink requirements. Accelerated consumer uptake of Gen AI will cause a steady increase of traffic in addition to the baseline increase. India already has the highest average monthly usage per smartphone at 32 GB, which is expected to grow to 66GB by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 13 percent."
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Growth of FWA
According to the report, Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) continues to gain momentum and is projected to be the second-largest 5G use case after enhanced Mobile Broadband (eMBB). By 2030, 80 percent of 350 million projected FWA connections are expected to be 5G-based, contributing to the overall growth in network traffic.
India's 5G Adoption
India is experiencing rapid 5G adoption, with 5G subscriptions expected to reach over 270 million by the end of 2024, accounting for 23 percent of total mobile subscriptions in the region. By 2030, 5G subscriptions are projected to reach 970 million, making up 74 percent of all mobile subscriptions in India. The country has also made large-scale mid-band deployments, which will cover 95 percent of the population by the end of 2024.
"Enhanced mobile broadband and FWA have emerged as the initial 5G use cases. 4G continues to be the dominant subscription type, contributing 54 percent of the total mobile subscriptions currently," Ericsson noted, referring to India.
Based on the strong 5G uptake, 4G subscriptions are forecast to decline from 640 million in 2024 to 240 million in 2030, contributing around 18 percent of the total mobile subscriptions, Ericsson said.
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Future of 6G
According to Ericsson's analysis, the first 6G deployments are expected to take place around 2030, building on the capabilities of 5G SA and 5G Advanced.
