Vodafone Idea Shut Down: Why we don't see any signs of it?
Vodafone Idea to Shut Down? No, we don't think so!
While the stress around the AGR dues on VIL is evident, we believe the company will bounce back and will be very much around, provided it will take some time to settle the dust amidst many uncertainties arisen from the course of actions or created ones (external forces). Now, the pandemic (lockdown) might have also added more to the woes hindering any immediate plans to put into action. We aren't sure if the company have had any exit plans earlier, but looking at the current scenario, we don't hold on to the 'exit' mindset anymore.
We have been here for a while, and no, we haven't created any theory ourselves or quoted some unknown/unnamed references or data points, but what made us believe so? We just tried to envisage and connect the dots using the limited resources we have.
Some customers come and ask us, and so we have this to say to them.
1. Network - Integration & Wide Coverage
Network Integration - It is easier said than done at the ground level and needs time as it is a continuous ongoing process. But, still, VIL has some news to share with us, reference below. Spectrum wise, VIL has the capacity, it just needs to be put to use.
I have personally witnessed and experienced a VIL BTS upgrade in phases in recent times - 4G >VoLTE > Band 41 Deployment >Ma-MIMO.
15 April 2020 - With 91% completion of network integration, Vodafone Idea emerges as the leader in 4G network performance.
Information can be found on the Spectrum Maps page.
2. Vodafone Supernet 4G/Supernet VoLTE
The 'TurboNet 4G' brand image created around the deployed technology will be ruined. Any exit from the Indian Market, if it is said to be in the pipeline, will also hamper the brand across its operational countries. We believe the group will not take this risk, considering India as a significant market.
3. Vodafone RedX Postpaid Plan:
A first of its kind in the industry, aimed at a premium segment, an open market High-Value Postpaid Plan with Unlimited Voice, Data, Airport Lounge access, OTT Subscriptions, IR/ISD benefits and many more.
As a thumb rule, if a company is serious on Postpaid Segment, we believe it is committed, have an intention, vision and plan to stay longer in the Market. Any company with a long term commitment desires customers to be a part of its family, unlike the recently observed come and go lucrative prepaid schemes(have not used prepaid 'strategy' - because it's not even worth it).
4. What could be Vodafone's Intention - Might be to target more of a class customers
Its Plans, Postpaid Add-ons, IR Packs (Advantage of global presence/partners) show that Vodafone is looking at a quality onboarding than the quantity perspective.
5. Vodafone seems to be serious on the Indian Market
They have invested a lot, seen ups and downs in the country, and are still pumping money to stay afloat. Had the company not have intentions to continue operations anymore, why would it even spend or pump money into a market which it plans to exit or write-off anytime nearby? It would have opted the NCLT route and saved itself from further expenses.
Reference: Recent Payments:
16 March 2020: Made Payments of Rs. 6,854 crores towards the AGR dues till date.
21 April 2020: Vodafone Idea pays about Rs 1,367 crore to govt towards licence fee, spectrum dues for Q4
22 April 2020: Vodafone Group Accelerates Payment Of $200 Million To Vodafone Idea(Vodafone Group makes Rs. 1,530 crore payment to VIL).
6. Vodafone's new, good beginning in India
It looks like the Vodafone CEO has already hinted about a new, good beginning in India. We assume this sentence(in the words of a CEO) will appear to be sweeter and turn to be more realistic once all the payment issues are settled and sorted. When a CEO has something to say, we believe it has some weightage and value; else, his statements will not hold any water when dealing with stakeholders in other markets.
6 March 2020: Vodafone wants to make a new, good beginning in India: CEO to govt
7. VIL is the first telco to announce the extension of prepaid validity: Lockdown
If we are not wrong, VIL is the first telco to announce the extension of prepaid validity to eligible subscribers. Another thumb rule here, if the company is in exit mindset, why would they even care about customers? They could have announced the same in a lazy release manner. Implies, they want to be in the good books of customers, which someone in exit mindset will lack. This is the same case with Network capacity enhancements during the lockdown. An exit mindset will instead think - 'When we are about to exit, Who cares? Let customers struggle.'
8. Vodafone Double Data Offer to Prepaid customers
If we are not wrong, VIL is the only telco to offer a double data benefit to customers on specific recharge denominations. Although the offer is circle specific, based on capacity or positioning criteria, we were able to feel the message - Experience our improved Network.
Now and then, we also come across certain crafted pieces of stories, which we believe hold no grounds at all. As long as the company sustains, how does it matter if Vodafone pumps money or idea pumps money? Let the stakeholders decide who will invest, who will take profits, who will stay or who will exit. Why are some unnamed analysts or unknown sources so worried about it? If they are so concerned or have issues, they should come out with a proper name and convey the same through appropriate channels. As long as the company abides by the rules and regulations, and the government is fine, it shouldn't be a problem for these unknown researchers.
Not Enough? Okay, let us forget everything discussed above, treat it like garbage, and consider just the current scenario we are around.
4 March 2020: Not aware of Vodafone Idea shutting down, says Govt
Will VIL exit? If so, when? Is the country ready for it? Will the government be okay with it?
Before we try to get answers for these questions, let us consider the below snippet.
COVID-19 Vaccine: Most experts think a vaccine is likely to become available by mid-2021, about 12-18 months. That would be a huge scientific feat, and there are no guarantees it will work. (Reference: a snippet from BBC/news/Health)
Which means we are uncertain about lockdown or the date when this world gets free from this pandemic.
14 April 2020: TRAI asks telcos for data on recharge pattern of prepaid users amid lockdown.
Inference: TRAI/Govt. is concerned if the subscribers are able to recharge, avail services and stay connected. Won't it be so worried about the basic connectivity itself to millions of subscribers? Will it take a chance on hampering the connectivity needs during these times?
25 April 2020: Lockdown: Government gets started to make WFH process smooth
Inference: Government is preparing for WFH arrangements, and it needs connectivity. At a time when the entire nation is preparing to WFH, we don't think just two players on 4G and one player on 3G will be able to suffice the surged demand. It simply can't just happen now in the current scenario.
Also, during these times, if VIL shuts down, it is neither possible to implement MNP nor likely for the remaining networks to enhance capacity immediately to accommodate the subscribers of VIL. So, we believe, no one has an option except to make sure VIL continues its operations and pass these tough times. But, let us consider if VIL is in exit mode, what motivates it to continue operations with losses? We believe it is difficult for any company to run operations at this scale and extent when they are likely to wind-up unless there is support or assurance from the government to help continue operations. Also, it doesn't make sense for anyone in any perspective to ask help from a struggling company by continuing its operations for now and take the beating later when the crisis ends. We believe by that time a lot of things must have changed or happened. Also, as a post COVID scenario, a company survival of such scale is essential for the country, be it for the immediate connectivity needs, revenue, investments or employment.
What an Exit of VIL means to customers:
You should be ready to take a left or right slap approach. Either this or that and nothing else. The quality from the remaining telcos will also get a beating with strained networks and capacity constraints. You will not be able to enjoy quality services. There won't be enough competition or innovation. End of the day, it is the customers who will be at a loss!
So, despite all its efforts during these tested times if VIL shuts down after the pandemic ends, it will have a place in our Hearts ❤️ and History Books too!
There would be a lot of baseless rumours coming in the Market from unknown, unnamed sources who cannot withstand VIL. Now, it is up to you to take a call on those theories or concepts.
In continuation to the above for Point 3.
Postpaid Services exclusively under ONE BRAND - Vodafone RED:
6 March 2020: Vodafone Idea to offer postpaid services exclusively under Vodafone RED brand
Starting with Mumbai, all circles to offer only Vodafone RED postpaid in a phased manner.
Starting May 11th, all Idea Cellular Postpaid Nirvana customers in Delhi, Kolkata, West Bengal, Assam & North East, Up West, UP East will be a part of the Vodafone RED family. With this change, Vodafone is ready to welcome you with more; more benefits, more offers and more of everything you love !
29 April 2020 :
1. Tax Refund Case:
The Supreme Court Wednesday granted partial relief to Vodafone Idea Ltd by asking the Income Tax department to refund Rs 733 crore to the telecom firm within four weeks, for assessment year 2014-15.
Very well articulated point of view with lot of important facts and figures good job but not sure if will VIL can keep up with the market expectiations what investors want.
What VIL should do right now is they should use strategy of Idea and Vodafone Team to build a better and stronger team to fight rest of the operators.
If we look at the numbers "VIL had Rs 50,922 crore loss in the September quarter, when it had made provisions for statutory dues following the Supreme Court's order in the adjusted gross revenue matter, although its losses in December quarter stood at Rs 6,439 crore." reports The Business Standard.
But not sure how VIL is going to take forward the losses in the long run?
But if you ask me its more or less like Indian Telecom Market is heading towards a duopoly of Airtel and Jio over the next coming months.
Kudos, to you such a well presented realistic view of what VIL is going through.
AFIK VIL is going to stay even after reading this people still think VIL will shutdown all I have to say is you are from WhatsApp university 😂😂😉.
They have already improved their network. So I don't think they will wind up. Most probable, they will come back strongly as their network is best now. Moreover the telecome sector started to regain again!
- Bad time gone for VIL they will came back very strong because they are the player of the market and VIL will play Megger roll in telecom sector I always bullish on it ,
All these roumors are paid conspiracy of other network providers, especially jio. They want monopoly in the field,after that they defenetely hike prices. At last the common people will suffer.
They wont shut down operations. I would suggest u guys to pick up the shares of VIL and wait for a year. Im Im s it will grow more than 10 times.
Their fair share price should be around 60₹ against the existing 4₹.
I use my vodafone sim on nokia 8.1,iphone se nd redmi 7a but no volte when I call there are 2g ., They sent me "Dear Customer, you can continue to enjoy Voice & 3G services on Vodafone SuperNet. Vodafone SuperNet 4G is launched on a superior 2100 MHz band and your currently handset does not support this band for 4G". I am frm Kolkata pls help
There is no benefit of these plans if there is no network at all. There is zero idea network in Bhubaneswar for the last 24 hours since 12:30 AM 26 April 2020. It’s a day gone and Idea has not yet restored it’s outage. There is a single reply in twitter, due to low resources it will take time to respond your query.
@Ajay Hi Ajay Sir,
Please explain how you derived to Rs.60.
Already invested in Vodafone @3.40
@Ajay great to hear that ,ppl are optimistic about VIL.but how do u address most market cap and telecom leaders today are jio and Airtel?
@Mohamed eqbal Why it has to be Jio why not its Airtel or why not if its done by Vodafone itself to kick Idea out?
@Ajay Not sure what is the logic you are holding it up, but I would suggest it has no intrinsic value and not sure how you are coming to a conclusion?
From past 3 weeks my Vodafone 4g was very slow. Not working at all. But Vodafone 3g was working fast.
But from yesterday 26 April 2020, I feel Vodafone 4g is working like hell fast.
They have upgraded the network.
Best ever performance by Vodafone.
I love Vodafone 4g.
I am from Liluah (Howrah, Kolkata Circle)
I would say have patience guys and give Vodafone some time. They are improving slowly but in a very efficient manner.
vil is doing very hard work to stay in market..but rcom aircel left the battle and surrendr
I was in Africa in 2007 and at that time vodafone known as Voda there had video calling
Vodafone is a world player in telcom and its tie up with Birla group Idea will help the group weather any storm.
No one would want Airtel or Jio to have a monopoly in this as this would not be good for end consumers.
- I pray n wish that VIL stay and the court n the government gives a extended time limit to clear their dues.
@Anirban You have to email them to activate VoLTE. I’m pretty sure the iPhone SE supports band 1 and moreover, you don’t particularly need band 1 for VoLTE to work.
VIL should follow Airtel path, should upgrade its 3g to 4g and as airtel network is 99% 4g now with over 180000 4g sites where as VIL have over 165000 furthermore volte is not 100% available in vodafoneidea which f***s it's internet sometimes ,i think by doing this VIL can be fastest 4g network in india as it have approx 100m 4g customer while having bigger spectrum portfolio than airtel. Apart from this tariff plans should be simplified and low validity plans should be introduced like rs.100 for 14 days
Had ported my second sim to VIL when RCOM closed down. Yet to use VIL for data as I am pretty happy with Jio performance as primary connection. We have extended our data connectivity to our tenants down stairs who have subscribef to VIL and VILnconnectivity is not available due to poor network coverage.
Now recently IAM using my idea 4g inplace jio ...it was harrible when compared to jio 4g not working fast ,upload and download load is terrible experience...
Do the needful
- Yours sincerely
Vodafone used to be too good where i reside until Friday 24 Apr, 2020. I'm not sure what the heck happened, since Saturday I'm not even getting 2g speeds. In this pandemic time its very annoying and difficult to wfh as i don't have any secondary connection except my Vodafone sim that i use as hotspot. Called their customer care on 198 and Complained many times but no luck so far.
VODAFONE is teleco. Master of the world they know how to be restablished ourselves in the market.i hope they would be like to me.
I have gone through most people comment here but it is false hope that they are keeping as it is evident that vil (I repeat only the company and not promoters) who trying to insure that company survives by hook or crook. What ever points written by SRI is basically pointing towards why vil will not shutdown in near future but discard the facts that what will happen once moratorium is lifted in 2022 and plat hota of payments will become due. In current sane mentality it would be not be prudent to think that by 2022 vil would have gathered enough pace and customers that it will become number 1 player and would be able to service all its debt and competition will simply wait and keep watching.
kindly wait till lockdown is lifted and see how courts will start the trial and push vil to pay or perish. Govt deficit is completed shattered and there is no way it can put all might and power to save vil as its self would be in dire need of money to fill tax coffers. Pre and post Covid actions of govt towards saving vil be complete different. Save my comment and we shall re assemble here again 🤣
@Sayak Roy Please SMS keyword
for volte services activation
but discard the facts
Not sure what made you say 'discard.' It isn't that Oops! I missed it or unaware of the possible scenario moment. In what can be one possibility, just to let enthusiasts like you have their space for groundwork or connect the dots too. They may also have some analogies or viewpoints, and btw I'm not forcing mine against anyone.
what will happen once moratorium is lifted in 2022
Right, let us go with this year(just one possibility). If so, with whose pocket money or donations will the company run till that time?
Pre and post Covid actions of govt towards saving vil be complete different
Absolutely. It is for the people who think on the similar lines, I have added the below too.
We believe by that time a lot of things must have changed or happened.
So, despite all its efforts during these tested times if VIL shuts down after the pandemic ends, it will have a place in our Hearts ❤️ and History Books too!
we shall re assemble here again 🤣
I wish the need to reassemble should not arise. Hopefully!
Btw, we are always around and need not explicitly reassemble here 😉
@Suresh Let's wish and hope that Vodafone Idea Clear AGR dues and survive
29 April 2020 : + Updates Added
@CS Adityan If they fail its tough for them to continue
11 May, Delhi, Kolkata, West Bengal, Assam & North East, Up West, UP East - Idea Nirvana Plan customers - it's the start of brand transition day to Vodafone RED family!
Leaving AGR issue aside, I see VIL as a BIG economic pillar for India going forward. Will India take a chance is what needs to be seen.
It hurts to hear such statements from Honourable institutions.
Telcos are only the ones Minting money during the pandemic.
It can be observed that one of the sole reasons why telcos are struggling to pay is that they have been bleeding from years even before this pandemic. No, they are losing an opportunity to make money now, when every telco in the world is making money during the pandemic.
Pity the sad state of Indian telcos. Neither they are able to hike tariffs owing to sentiments and scenario nor making profits. Worst state is not being able to express, as the mighty is not able to understand it.
Pathetic network in Mumbai and very poor service. Took more than a month to resolve incorrect billing issue. Vodafone Plc needs to open purse strings instead of looking at sops from SC and Govt. If Jio and Airtel are doing so well why cant VIL? They need to pump money and management needs to be on the go. Look at Jio and Airtel how they are getting money from PEs and the likes of Facebook etc. VIL has completely failed
Vodafone Idea makes another Rs.1000 crore payment to DOT taking the total payment to an aggregate Rs 7,854 crore towards AGR dues.
Particularly the ease of doing business ratings of the World Bank. Investment is the best show of confidence, says Narendra Modi at the India Ideas Summit.
With the above, the context is clear - FDI.
Someone somewhere must be waiting and watching for the results of the announcements and the ease in reality to jump in.
I honestly want VoId to survive, even though I have all bad experiences with them, incl VAS deductions, stupid friendship SMS even after activating DND, in-consistent speeds, VoLTE disasters, bad 4G coverage, etc. Reason being, competition is good for we consumers. Even if they become joker operator like Docomo in past, its better than they shutting down for sure.
But for that to happen, the following has to be done, imho.
 They should stop acting like beggars everywhere (especially in media and courts), like say, they don't have money to pay staff, our promoter money got washed away, we have to shut shop, etc which shows their lack of confidence -- a force which moves their customers to other network. The word, "we may have to shut shop" came from VoId chairman during Nov2019 and that's not a good thing to hear for their loyal customers, even though He used it as a tactic to get help from Govt, imho.
 The promoters need to infuse loads and loads of Vitamin M to the Co. No use in comparing olden golden glory days. Because with just 4 operators, future is equally good, provided they are ready to invest. If even promoters are NOT ready to invest, then how will others invest in this co?? All the JIO is NOT built in a day.. Today they are getting investments from all over the world. But for that RIL invested money in Jio like nobody else.
 Make decisions on your own and NOT follow your ex-cartel friend Airtel (especially wrt tariff plans), like the dog in your ads. Reason is Airtel is investing enough (even though less than Jio) and their decisions will bring success to them and NOT to VoId, while they are investing less. If they want to copy Airtel, copy these things ---->> Airtel has started VoWiFi, eSIM service is available all over India, not just in 2 or 3 states like VoId, 3G is stopped and re-framed for 4G, their VoLTE coverage is available in most of the rural areas as well.
 Stop the selected area, cluster by cluster approach. Even in my city, 4G coverage is NOT available away from urban area limits.